Deep Insight into Capital Flows
Deep Insight into Capital Flows
Alright, folks, buckle up. Michael Burry, the guy who called the 2008 crash, just made a HUGE bet against Nvidia and Palantir. Puts worth hundreds of millions. He’s clearly seeing something… or not seeing something that the rest of us are. Is he a genius, or is he missing the biggest tech revolution since the internet? That's the million-dollar question, isn't it?
Let's break down what Burry's Scion Asset Management actually did. The 13F filing is out, and it's a doozy. He went all-in on put options against Nvidia ($NVDA) and Palantir ($PLTR)—we're talking a million puts on Nvidia and a staggering five million on Palantir. That's $186.58 million and $912.1 million respectively. That's a serious chunk of change betting that these companies are going to take a nosedive. Michael Burry Is Super-Bearish On Palantir — With 5 Million Puts - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) - Benzinga That's a serious chunk of change betting that these companies are going to take a nosedive.
But here's the kicker: he also loaded up on call options for Halliburton ($HAL) and Pfizer ($PFE). 2.5 million calls on Halliburton, 6 million on Pfizer. It's a complete reshuffling of the deck. And he didn't just tweak things; he closed out all his previous option positions, including bullish calls on Lululemon, Meta, ASML, and Alibaba. Gone. Wiped clean. Except, he doubled his stock holdings in Lululemon. Confused yet? I know I was at first!
He's not just betting against AI darlings; he's betting for… well, let's just say more traditional sectors. He also opened new equity positions in SLM Corporation and Molina Healthcare, while ditching Estee Lauder, Regeneron, MercadoLibre, and UnitedHealth. It's a total 180.
Now, Burry's not exactly subtle about his views. His return to X, referencing an AI bubble with a Star Wars meme ("These aren't the charts you are looking for. You can go about your business"), is classic Burry. It’s a direct jab at the AI hype train. He’s been posting charts comparing the current AI capex to the dot-com bubble, showing the web of AI deals between Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, and the big tech players. He's painting a picture of unsustainable spending and inflated valuations. Are we seeing history repeat itself?
But is he right? Nvidia and Palantir are up 54% and 174% year-to-date, respectively. That's insane growth. Palantir, in particular, has been on a tear. Are these just irrational exuberance, or are these companies truly revolutionizing their respective fields? He posted charts comparing Cloud segment growth for Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft from 2018-2022 with the present period. Is the growth slowing down? Is that what he's seeing?
The market is clearly betting on the AI revolution continuing. Nvidia is the picks-and-shovels play, the company providing the hardware that makes it all possible. Palantir is the data analytics platform that helps organizations make sense of the flood of information generated by AI. These aren't just companies; they're enablers of the future.
Here's the thing: Burry's a smart guy. He’s not just throwing darts at a board. He sees the potential for a correction, a pullback, a reality check. Maybe he thinks the valuations have run too far ahead of the actual adoption and impact of AI. Maybe he believes that the AI bubble will burst, just like the dot-com bubble did. But does that mean AI itself is a fad? Absolutely not!
I think Burry's bet, while contrarian, is a valuable one. It's a reminder that even in the midst of revolutionary change, fundamentals still matter. Valuations still matter. Profitability still matters. Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will happen, at least not at the pace the market is currently pricing in.
However, I think he might be underestimating the long-term potential of AI. This isn't just another tech fad. This is a paradigm shift that's going to transform every aspect of our lives, from healthcare to transportation to education. Nvidia and Palantir are at the forefront of that transformation.
The speed of this is just staggering—it means the gap between today and tomorrow is closing faster than we can even comprehend. This uses advanced algorithms and machine learning—in simpler terms, it means computers are learning and improving at an exponential rate. When I first saw the demo of Palantir's AI platform, I honestly just sat back in my chair, speechless. This is the kind of breakthrough that reminds me why I got into this field in the first place.
We need to be mindful of the ethical considerations. The power of AI comes with responsibility. We need to ensure that it's used for good, that it's accessible to everyone, and that it doesn't exacerbate existing inequalities. But the potential benefits are too great to ignore.
So, is Burry right? Maybe in the short term. But I think he's missing the bigger picture. The AI revolution is here to stay, and companies like Nvidia and Palantir are going to be leading the charge. The markets will fluctuate, but the underlying trend is clear. What this means for us is a world of possibilities, but more importantly, what could it mean for you?
